News Analysis: Trump's ditching of Iran nuclear deal to escalate tensions

Source: Xinhua| 2018-05-09 08:27:38|Editor: Chengcheng
Video PlayerClose

WASHINGTON, May 8 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Donald Trump's decision on Tuesday to withdraw his country from the Iran nuclear deal would undermine peace and denuclearization prospects, U.S. experts said.

To scrap the 2015 landmark international deal aimed at containing Iran's nuclear ambitions would escalate regional tensions by sparking a nuclear arms race, they said.

WHAT'S BEHIND TRUMP'S DECISION?

Richard Baffa, a senior international and defense policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, told Xinhua that the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was "very much expected."

The decision was largely motivated by Trump's personal serious opposition to the agreement as far back as in the presidential campaign, and the encouragement of his new national security team led by John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, Baffa said.

Their opposition is centered on both problems with the agreement itself as well as Iran's regional influence, he noted.

Specifically for the agreement clauses, he said that "the problematic provisions include the sunset provisions (the restrictions expire in roughly a decade); the lack of attention to Tehran's ballistic missile program; continued authorization for limited enrichment; and an inspection regime that may not be able to gain access to military sites."

The expert noted that the recent revelations by Israel on the extent of Iran's clandestine program prior to 2003 "have exacerbated these concerns."

However, in the eyes of Brookings Institution senior fellow Darrell West, "Trump is intent on turning back all the decisions made during the Obama Administration."

"The Iran deal is just the latest example," he said. "Trump believes he can negotiate a better deal than Obama, but he doesn't understand that many other countries were involved and there are complex interests at play."

"The ability to reopen negotiations is likely to be quite limited and the United States will have little leverage without the support of European allies, China, and Russia. It took all of those parties to reach the original deal," he added.

Chris Galdieri, assistant professor at Saint Anselm College in the U.S. state of New Hampshire, told Xinhua that Trump "is largely motivated with undoing as much of Obama's presidency as he can manage."

"Adding to that is the fact that Trump is now surrounded by hawks like John Bolton, and this is not at all a surprise to me," he said in an interview.

HOW WILL TRUMP'S DECISION AFFECT OTHER NATIONS, REGIONS?

The move has been conjectured for months, despite last-ditch efforts by European leaders and supporters to salvage the July 2015 agreement between Iran and the six world powers of Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

RAND's Baffa told Xinhua that the Iran nuke deal was "high on the agenda" of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in their visits to the United States recently.

He noted that the issue of secondary sanctions, which Trump warned in his speech, "has the potential to increase tensions" along the two sides of the Atlantic.

As for the Middle East, Baffa said "an Iranian departure from the deal along with a move to re-start its nuclear program," sparked by Trump's decision, "would have profound, destabilizing implications for the region."

"In the near term, the Israelis will be alarmed and the military option almost certainly will be back on the table. Over the mid-term, the Saudis and others might pursue a weapon of their own," he said.

More worrisome prospects are waiting ahead.

Dan Mahaffee, senior vice president and director of policy at the Center for the Study of Congress and the Presidency, said that "with Sunni Arab allies and Israel, the United States is moving towards a policy of more direct confrontation with Iran, rather than the rapprochement under the Obama administration - which Trump and many of his hawkish allies believe was naive."

Brookings' West also noted that the risk is that Trump's decision will spark an arms race in the Middle East.

"Iran may restart its nuclear program and that could propel Saudi Arabia to develop its own nuclear program. The region is likely to become more volatile and chaotic as a result of the deal nullification," he said.

Galdieri told Xinhua that Trump's decision will undercut the U.S. relations with the Middle East, as well as with its European allies.

"I think it hurts them, simply because Trump has now declared that the U.S. can't be trusted," he said.

WHAT COULD BE THE FATE OF JCPOA

Mahaffee said that the future of the deal depends on "how the United States intends to re-implement sanctions."

"If it is a wide ranging set of sanctions that affect any transaction with Iran, the reach of the U.S. financial system will make it hard for European and Asian nations and multinationals to continue their trade with Iran," he said.

However, despite threats to withdraw from the deal, Tehran is unlikely to immediately leave and "even less likely to jump start its nuclear weapons program," Baffa said.

"This course of action would reinforce international concerns about Iran's mid-to-long-term intentions to become a nuclear-armed state and almost certainly lead to a re-imposition of draconian sanctions, he said. "Tehran may make a statement that it is no longer bound by the JCPOA, but note that it is voluntarily continuing to comply with its provisions."

He warned that "if draconian sanctions are eventually re-imposed and if European governments do not successfully push back against such measures, it is possible Iran would then move to formally withdraw from the agreement and re-start its nuclear program."

"A broader collapse of the agreement along with the imposition of harsh sanctions in the coming months, however, could sharply escalate tensions with Iran," he said.

"Freed from the constraints of the JCPOA, Tehran may eventually opt to jump start its nuclear project, a move that would increase the risk of a major regional war," he added.

In an announcement, the Washington-based Arms Control Association denounced Trump's decision, saying it "is an irresponsible act of foreign policy malpractice" that violates the JCPOA.

"European-U.S. efforts to negotiate a supplemental agreement intended to address Trump's complaints failed to yield results because Trump stubbornly refused to guarantee that he would uphold U.S. commitments under the JCPOA," said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the independent group.

"Through his reckless actions, Trump is precipitating a proliferation crisis rather than working with our allies to develop a long-term diplomatic strategy to build on the agreement in the years ahead," he noted.

(Matthew Rusling from Washington contributed to the story.)

TOP STORIES
EDITOR’S CHOICE
MOST VIEWED
EXPLORE XINHUANET
010020070750000000000000011100001371655401
彩神xl 大发app 凤凰彩票app 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发彩票 乐发彩票app下载 大发彩票 乐发v官网 乐发lll 乐发lv入口 乐发iv首页 乐发ll登录 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发官网 乐发ii下载入口 乐发ll 乐发v平台 乐发v官网 乐发lll 乐发lv入口 乐发iv首页 乐发ll登录 乐发lv 乐发lll安装 乐发lv 乐发登录入口 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票登录 网信彩票 彩神 彩神彩票官方网站 彩神彩票官网首页 彩神官方app下载安卓版 凤凰彩票登录 彩神v3 凤凰彩票app下载 彩神官方app下载安卓版 网信快三 一分快3 快三彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票官方 快3官网 网信彩票 快3app 网信彩票平台 百姓彩票平台 网信平台官网 快3app下载 百姓彩票 每日彩票 快3app 百姓彩票 每日彩票 快3app 百姓彩票平台 幸运5分彩快3 快3彩票app下载 百姓彩票网站网址 大发10分PK10 快3下载 网信彩票平台 网信平台官网 快3彩票官网app 凤凰彩票官方 彩神彩票 大发10分PK10 彩神v3 大发彩票app下载 百姓彩票网站网址 彩神购彩平台 每日彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 彩神彩票购彩平台 百姓彩票 凤凰彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票app下载 彩神官方app下载安卓版 网信快三 一分快3 快三彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票官方 彩神彩票 大发10分PK10 彩神v3 凤凰彩票登录 乐发lv 乐发∨Il 百姓彩票网站网址 乐发彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 乐发lll安装 百姓彩票网站网址 凤凰彩票app下载 大发10分PK10 乐发2 乐发app 凤凰彩票 大发彩票app 乐发登录入口 乐发ll登录 乐发v官网 乐发官网 大发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票购彩平台 彩神彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 一分快3 百姓彩票网站网址 凤凰彩票app下载 大发10分PK10 乐发2 乐发app 凤凰彩票 大发彩票app 乐发登录入口 乐发ll登录 乐发v官网 乐发官网 大发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票购彩平台 彩神彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 1分快三平台 百姓彩票平台 凤凰彩票登录 幸运5分彩快3 彩神 乐发彩票 乐发 大发彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发lv 乐发lll 乐发ii下载入口 乐发彩票官方网站 凤凰彩票官方网站 凤凰快3 彩神彩票官网首页 1分快三平台 百姓彩票平台 凤凰彩票登录 幸运5分彩快3 彩神 乐发彩票 乐发 大发彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发lv 凤凰彩票app 乐发app 网信彩票平台 网信彩票平台 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票app 乐发lv 乐发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票app 网信彩票平台 乐发彩票app下载 乐发lv 乐发app 大发彩票安卓下载 大发彩票安卓下载 大发彩票 乐发彩票app下载 网信彩票平台 乐发iv游戏平台 彩神彩票 乐发彩票中心 极速快3彩票平台 人人快三凤凰 大发彩票app 大发彩票大全 乐发彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 乐发app 酷天堂彩票平台 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票大厅 凤凰彩票app 极速快3彩票平台 凤凰彩票 凤凰快3 乐发ll官网 乐发彩票中心 正规快三送彩金平台 凤凰彩票官方 乐发ll 乐发 网信彩票 彩神彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 大发彩票app 网信彩票用户 百姓快三 百姓彩票平台 乐发lv 乐发彩票app下载 彩信平台 网信彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 乐发∨Il 人人快三凤凰 凤凰彩票 凤凰快3 乐发ll官网 乐发彩票中心 正规快三送彩金平台 凤凰彩票官方 乐发ll 乐发 网信彩票 彩神彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 人人快三凤凰 乐发彩票 彩神彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发彩票 大发彩票中心 凤凰彩票登录 凤凰彩票app 彩神彩票 大发彩票 乐发ll 大发彩票app 凤凰快3 凤凰彩票 彩神彩票 乐发ll 凤凰彩票 乐发lll 凤凰彩票大厅 网信彩票 彩神彩票 乐发lv 快盈彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 盈彩网投资平台 大发官网 一分时时彩 乐发lv 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发app 大发官网 乐发lll 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发app 彩神iv 大发彩票app 大小单双平台 一分pk10 乐发lv 快盈彩票 乐发官网 快彩彩票 百姓彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 网信彩票 乐发彩票中心 网信快3 乐发 彩神xl 三分快3 大发彩票 大发官网 乐发lll 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 大发彩票 乐发 分分快3 彩神vl 55世纪 55世纪 凤凰快3 乐发彩票 乐发lv welcome凤凰彩票 乐发ll 1分快3 彩神 彩神ll 1分快3官网 1分快3的平台 welcome凤凰彩票 三分快3 彩神x 彩神vl 凤凰彩票 彩神xl 大发彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发官网 乐发ll 乐发lll 乐发lv 大发彩票app 大发彩票 乐发 乐发彩票 乐发彩票中心 凤凰快3 乐发彩票 彩神xl 腾讯快3 大发彩票 彩神xl 大发彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票app 快3平台 乐发 1分快3 乐发彩票 彩神x 凤凰快3 彩神xl 彩吧助手 大发彩票app 快3平台 大发排列3 彩神iv 彩神vl 乐发IV 彩神x 一分pk10 大发排列3 乐发lv 快3彩票 乐发app下载 三分快3 快三平台助手 乐发彩票ll 彩神iv 乐发lll下载 盈彩网投资平台 乐发Ⅲ 一分pk10 凤凰彩票 乐发Vll 大发官网 乐发ll 大发彩票 乐发1 凤凰快3 彩神vl 乐发lx 百姓彩票 乐发VI 彩神x 乐发IV 极速快3 乐发 凤凰快3 网信快3 乐发lv 快3彩票 乐发app下载 三分快3 快三平台助手 乐发彩票ll 彩神iv 乐发lll下载 盈彩网投资平台 乐发Ⅲ 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发lv 乐发lv 乐发lv 凤凰彩票 大发彩票 大发彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 乐发ll 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 乐发ll 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 彩神x 乐发 乐发ll 极速快3 乐发lv 乐发彩票中心 快3彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 彩神x 凤凰彩票app 分分快3 网信彩票 网盟彩票 凤凰彩票 百姓彩票 乐发 快彩彩票 乐发彩票 快3平台 百姓彩票 大小单双平台 凤凰快3 彩神xl 一分pk10 乐发lv 三分快3 大发彩票 乐发彩票 快3平台 百姓彩票 大小单双平台 凤凰快3 彩神xl 一分pk10 乐发lv 三分快3 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发ll 网信彩票 乐发lv 全民彩票 凤凰彩票app下载 快盈彩票 大发彩票app 大发官网 凤凰彩票 彩神iv 大发彩票 网信快3 凤凰彩票 百姓彩票